Vista: the last Windows on the desktop? Not likely.

Gartner, those wily analysts who seem to always court controversy and bait Microsoft, are at it again. Their latest prediction? Vista will be the last major update to the Windows operating system as we know it. If Gartner's report is to be believed, future versions of Windows will consist of modules, stitched together using the magic of hardware-supported virtualization. "Once Windows includes virtualization at its core, we expect OS development to change direction from integration to modularization." According to Gartner, such a modular architecture would make the migration and installation process less complicated for IT departments and would speed up the development of patches and updates from Microsoft. ZDnet's Tom Foremski agreed with Gartner's predictions, though his comments struck a markedly different tone: "It will be the last because Vista runs a web browser, which overlays Vista--paper covers rock."

Might the next version of Windows be not only modular but delivered via the web? I say no. Historically, Microsoft has proven anything but quick to adapt its business model to new technologies and the web is a prime example of that. And even if Microsoft was somehow ahead of the pack this time, we're still years away from using a web browser as our primary interface--especially considering the state of broadband internet penetration in the U.S. While Web 2.0 is an exciting concept and certainly offers a lot of promise, it's going to take time for the average user, not to mention the enterprise, to make the transition to a web-oriented environment.

Now here's what may happen: There have been some rumblings that Microsoft may follow up Vista with a massive overhaul--by dumping the majority of Windows' bloated code and essentially starting from scratch. It would certainly be a wise move, as the huge amounts of legacy code that exist in modern versions of Windows are likely the cause of numerous security and stability woes and also increased development time. What would happen if Microsoft went back to the drawing board with Windows? Think about what happened when Apple made the transition from OS 9 to OS X. Sure, those first few months when you couldn't even get OS X to support your optical drive were rough but after a few years of finesse, Mac users ended up with what is, for my money, the most elegant, stable and fun operating system on the market. Everyone is expecting new Windows head Steven Sinofsky to shake things up at the Windows team and if he's wise, he'll give Windows the massive overhaul that it sorely needs. Is a modularized version of Windows the answer? It could be, especially considering that today's dual and quad-core chips are optimized for virtualization applications.

In conclusion, the next version of Windows may not be called "Windows". It may not look like Windows. And it may not run like Windows. It might even consist of a number of small, independent applications running in parallel, as Gartner has predicted. But whatever it is, I'm willing to bet that it will still be a desktop operating system.

For more on the future of Windows:
- this article from Techworld
- this article at Neowin.net
- and Tom Foremski's ZDnet blog