2008 tech predictions

Ah, the first issue of the new year. Time to peer deep into our crystal ball and see what the coming year holds for tech. But before we get on with the 2008 predictions, let's look back at our 2007 predictions and see how we did, shall we?

Windows Vista: Coming soon to a desktop near you?

Last year, we predicted that while a few bleeding-edge businesses would deploy Vista, most would hang on to the tried and true XP for the time being. "My bet is that 2008 is the real year that mass-market Vista adoption becomes a reality." I might scale that statement back a bit but other than that, so far, so good.

IT job market will continue to grow in 2007

This one's a bit dicier. While there's no shortage of folks out there who are willing to comment on the matter, it's difficult to assess the vast IT job market as a whole with any level of certainly. As near as we can tell, however, the IT job market was fairly stagnant this year, on account of constrained IT budgets. Guess we'll call this one an "incorrect" guess. Still, those of us who already had jobs likely saw salary increases, so it wasn't all bad news.

Quad-core chips will return disappointing sales results

Here's another one that's kind of tough to call. Sales numbers from the end of the year aren't in yet and while quad-core chips were certainly the talk of the town in 2007, it's hard to say how many were actually sold. While Intel surprised more than a few folks by rolling out its quad-core, 45nm Penryn lineup ahead of schedule, AMD hit a brick wall with its native quad-core Barcelona, essentially pulling the chip from retail due to manufacturing problems. Still, as we predicted, quad-core chips were mostly regulated to high-performance systems like x86 servers and workstations, so I think it's safe to chalk this one up in the "correct" column.

As we all know, Apple did launch their much-ballyhooed iPhone this year, though they didn't quite release two models, as I had guessed they might. As for that ultraportable MacBook Pro, well, you'll have to read on if you want to know what I think about that rumor. For now, we'll call this one a draw.

I hate to toot my own horn but we pretty much hit this one on the head. 2007 saw 802.11n finally get off the ground, becoming the new de facto standard for WiFi networking, despite the hemming and hawing of the IEEE. What's more, Intel got behind the standard in a big way and Apple even launched an 802.11n update to its Airport hardware, just like we said.

HD DVD vs. Blu Ray: Everybody loses!

Here's another one where we were right, for the most part. While 2007 was billed as the year of the great HD format war, we now find ourselves entering 2008 without a clear winner in sight. It seems like every week we hear one or the other side claiming victory based on some piece of slightly dubious evidence and while it looks like Blu-ray might currently have the edge, it's still way too early to call it. Are Blu-ray and HD DVD are doomed to be thrown on the transitional format pile along with the 8 track, laserdiscs and the mini disc? It's too early to say for sure but I'd still bet money on it.

So there you have it, 4 corrects, 1 incorrect and 1 draw. Not bad, not bad at all. And what of this coming year in tech? Read on, if you dare...

• Green tech will take off in the enterprise
• Vista in the enterprise? Not anytime soon
• Wireless industry deathwatch
• MacWorld 2008: 3G iPhone, ultraportable MacBook Pro
• Will Android live up to the hype?
• Disposable laptops will be en vogue