2008: Year of the Penguin?

Every January, an open-source fan out there somewhere declares the new year the year that desktop Linux finally breaks into mainstream. Yet somehow, those predictions never seem to materialize. So how about it, will 2008 finally be the year of the penguin? Ars Technica decided to take a good long look at what this coming year has in store for the Linux faithful and while it doesn't look like open-source software will quite achieve dominance within the next 12 months, there are still some potentially big gains to be made. As Ars duly notes, "...Linux desktop market share is less then one percent. Based on data from [Net Applications], Linux exceeded the market share of Microsoft's much-hated failure, Windows ME, for the first time in Q4 2007." So, realistically speaking, Linux has quite a way to go on the desktop.

Despite that fact, 2008 could be a big year for mobile and embedded Linux variants, which have already managed to capture a sizable chunk of the market. "According to the Canalys report on Q2 2007 market share, Linux holds 13.3 percent of the global smartphone market, which puts it ahead of the Windows, BlackBerry, and Palm operating systems." And considering what's on the horizon--namely Android, LiMo, Motorola's MOTOMAGX platform and Palm's next-gen OS--2008 could certainly be the year that Linux breaks into the mainstream in a small way.

For more Linux predictions:
- read this Ars Technica article