Apple's iPad tablet computer appears to be proving itself as more than just a fun consumer gadget; it is already eating into sales of netbook computers, according to at least one analysis, and it may be only a matter of time before it becomes a replacement for "real computers" too.

A report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) last week suggests that a dramatically falling growth rate in the sales of netbooks this year and the steady climb of iPad sales may be linked. A survey in March found that 44 percent of the people who were planning to buy an iPad said it would be in lieu of buying a netbook or notebook. Scarier, perhaps, for "real computers," 27 percent said the iPad purchase would be in lieu of a desktop PC.

Tablet computers like the iPad provide fewer features and applications, slower processors and fewer options for external devices than laptops and desktops, but at the same time they require less maintenance, writes Mike Elgan in a post at ComputerWorld. Because the iPad simplifies what has become a very complicated computing environment, users will flock to it in growing numbers, he predicts.

Desktop PCs "require more troubleshooting of problems, more general system maintenance, more file management. They require more and constant learning, just to keep them running. Laptops require more frequent charging. They have more 'stuff' connected to them. They cost more money," Elgan writes.

Meanwhile, some industry experts are wondering what impact the iPad's rise and the netbook's fall will have on Microsoft. Shane O'Neill at CIO asks whether Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will bank on increased purchases of the more expensive, "regulation-size" notebooks, or whether it will try to go head to head with the iPad by working with more manufacturers to launch Windows-based tablet computers.

"With the slow death of netbooks upon us, Microsoft can't go too much longer without an answer for the iPad," O'Neill writes.

For a more optimistic view of the future of the netbook, take a look at an article by Gregg Keizer in ComputerWorld. Keizer quotes Stephen Baker, an analyst with the NPD Group, who sees a number of factors other than the iPad in the netbook's stabilized growth. In particular, Baker points to sales of the Windows-based notebooks.

"The development of the under-$500 notebook market is the biggest story of 2009 and early 2010," Baker said. "For a little more money, sometimes just $50 or so, consumers can buy a full notebook with a full-sized keyboard, a 15-in., sometimes a 17.-in. screen, with higher resolution [than a netbook]."

For more:
- see Michael Elgan's post at ComputerWorld
- check out Shane O'Neill's post at CIO
- read Gregg Keizer's article at ComputerWorld

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