As fast as technology predictions for 2011 are rolling in, counter-predictions are sliding in behind them. It's clear that nobody can be too sure what the next year has in store for IT--or anything else, for that matter. The uncertainty is unnerving on many levels, but it's a good reminder that even the most learned sages (hello, Alan Greenspan) can turn out to be wrong, and we often do best by following our own instincts.

One frequently voiced prediction is that automation and other software tools soon will put a big dent in the IT labor force. Gartner, in a report released late last month, predicted that automation and tools will cut one-fourth of the labor hours associated with IT services by 2015. It doesn't seem like a radical prediction, particularly if you figure IT services would follow a common pattern in other industries, particularly manufacturing. Luke Kanies, CEO of Puppet Labs, which sells data center configuration automation technology, contacted me to say he sees it quite differently.

"I have a big problem with this prediction," Kanies said. "I don't think it's really possible to think of it in terms of reduced effort, because it's much more about increased productivity." 

With improved technology, more can be produced in less time, but that does not necessarily mean that fewer people will be on the job, Kanies maintains. "I don't think these tools will reduce the hours spent, I think they'll increase what gets done with the hours that are spent," he said. "And if anything, their success will drive more investment, and thus more hours, not fewer."

When considering predictions, it's helpful to learn from the past. Here, from the 15^th century, is one erroneous technology prediction with special relevance for our time: In an essay called "In Praise of Copying," the author Trithemius wrote that "Printed books will never be the equivalent of handwritten codices, especially since printed books are often deficient in spelling and appearance." Woe to Trithemius were he to witness the age of email and texting... - Caron