By 2020, the data and applications that most people use will be housed in the cloud rather than on PCs, according to a survey of 895 technology experts and observers, sponsored by the Pew Research Center.

In the next 10 years, there will be a heavy migration toward working via networked devices, and data will be stored largely on remote servers operated by third parties, the survey predicts. This migration will be driven in part by the benefits of "easy, instant and individualized access" to applications and data anytime, anywhere.

However, large enterprises are not likely to migrate entirely to the cloud in immediately because of concerns about data control and security, some respondents predicted. Pew's fourth annual "Future of the Internet" survey was conducted with Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center.

Most of the experts surveyed also predicted a cloud-desktop hybrid system developing over the next 10 years, as technologies are created to improve the interaction between PCs and remote computers. Some said that private networks will be capable of the same benefits as the cloud but with improved efficiency and functionality.

Despite these predictions, the experts noted the many obstacles standing in the way of growth in cloud computing, including concerns about privacy and security. Jerry Berman, founder of the Center for Democracy and Technology, commented that the effect on privacy will continue to raise red flags. "There are almost no protections for sensitive information stored in the cloud," he told Pew.

Other experts predicted dire problems ahead: "We'll have a huge blow up with terrorism in the cloud and the PC will regain its full glory," R. Ray Wang, a partner in The Altimeter Group, told Pew. "People will lose confidence as cyber attacks cripple major systems."

Some of those who foresee a less-than-auspicious future for the cloud said that the desktop will continue to dominate because of security and privacy problems, quality of service concerns and because handheld devices do not offer an adequate user interface for work functions. Some also noted that if cloud computing is dominated by a small number of companies, users could have less choice and control, and the Internet could become less open.

For more:
- see the "Future of Cloud Computing" report

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