The majority of new Global 2000 CIOs, by the year 2015, will be compensated based on the revenue that IT generates for their companies, if the latest predictions by Gartner analysts prove correct. Board members and executives' expectations for deriving revenue from IT's direct involvement in innovation and other initiatives will drive the CIOs' incentives, according to Gartner.

"With costs still under pressure, growth opportunities limited and the tolerance to bear risk low, IT faces increased levels of scrutiny from stakeholders both internal and external," said Darryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner fellow. "All parties expect greater transparency, and meeting this demand will require that IT become more tightly coupled to the levers of business control."

Gartner forecasts for the next few years focus on the evolving roles played by IT organizations and technologies. This year's crystal ball spotlights the connections between IT decisions and economic and societal results.   

On the darker side, Gartner analysts predict that online attacks will damage the critical infrastructure of one of the G20 nations by 2015. Noting that this kind of sabotage can be "multimodal," Gartner warned that multiple systems, such as physical plants, mobile networks and the financial system, could be targeted all at once.

In a grim prediction for some IT workers, Gartner said that automation and other tools will cut one-fourth of IT services labor hours by 2015. Like manufacturing, IT services will become more industrialized, facilitating self-service and automated provisioning, among other non-labor-intensive things.

The trend toward consumerizing IT is expected to accelerate, with 90 percent of organizations supporting their corporate apps on employee-owned smartphones, notebooks and other devices by 2014. A shift in mindset within IT organizations regarding these devices "will herald the start of the postconsumerization era."  

For more:
- see "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2011 and Beyond: IT's Growing Transparency" report

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