Borders and Kodak are winding down once highly promising businesses, and industry observers widely credit a failure to anticipate disruptive technologies. However, the "technology-induced nightmares" of these companies had their inception in disruptions that initially appeared insignificant, writes Chunka Mui in a post at Forbes.

Both companies at one time had very hopeful futures. When Borders was at the top of its game, it brought in more than $4 billion in sales annually and ran more than 1,200 stores worldwide. In February, the bookseller filed for bankruptcy protection, and last week it said it was preparing to liquidate.

Borders failed to jump on the online bandwagon at the beginning, and when it finally decided to address the new medium, it outsourced its Internet business to Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). It wasn't until 2008 that Borders operated its own online presence. 

As for Kodak, it was instrumental in the development of digital photography but it was unable to embrace the transition away from film, which brought in most of its profits. "Instead, Kodak squandered billions chasing growth in film and chemicals," Mui writes.

To avoid this fate, company leaders have to look beyond the next quarter and "come to terms with scenarios that could mean their doom," Mui suggests. One way to do this is by envisioning one's worst potential rival, which helps clarify a company's possible vulnerabilities.

"What if you are Sears or Simon Property Group, and Amazon offers an additional 10 percent discount to shoppers who buy online while standing in one of your stores?" Mui asks. "Constructing doomsday scenarios has a way of focusing attention and building alignment that wouldn't otherwise exist in executive teams."

If your company is facing disruptive technologies, it might be constructive to contemplate doomsday.

For more:
- see Chunka Mui's post at Forbes

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