Eight reasons tech will survive the meltdown

While the global economy is dismal and layoffs are all around, experts believe that the sales of computer hardware, software and services will be growing again within 18 months. Here are some predictions from IDC, reported in an article this week in CIO.com:

• The slowest IT markets will be the U.S., Japan and Western Europe, with about 1 percent growth expected.
• The healthiest economies will be in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
  Gartner predicts global IT spending will reach $3.8 trillion in 2008, up from $3.15 in 2007.

"We expect a gradual recovery throughout 2010, and by 2011 we should be back into a more normal kind of environment," said IDC Analyst Stephen Minton.

If the recession turns out to be deeper, or last longer than four quarters, as most economic experts expect, "it could turn into a contraction in IT spending," Minton added. "In that case, the IT market would still be weak in 2010 but we'd see a gradual recovery in 2011, and we'd be back to normal by 2012."

It's hard to believe, but these predictions are not nearly as severe as the declines in the tech industry between 2001 and 2003, and that should provide a sense of relief for the IT industry.

"Global economic problems are impacting IT budgets, however the IT industry will not see the dramatic reductions that were seen during the dot.com bust...At that time, budgets were slashed from mid-double-digit growth to low-single-digit growth," Gartner said in a statement.

For more on tech in this downturn:
- see this CIO.com article

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